Adviser Momodou Sabally has reignited a bitter row over polling in the country, alleging that pollster Marr was induced and paid to manipulate survey results during the UDP’s flag-bearer primaries while declaring that the Economist Intelligence Unit has already forecast President Adama Barrow’s victory.
Speaking on Coffee Time with Peter Gomez, Sabally claimed he raised the alarm during the last poll before UDP’s primaries, when Talib Bensouda suddenly emerged as the people’s favourite ahead of more established figures.
Sabally alleged the poll was designed to convince UDP supporters that Talib was the winnable candidate. “I said that poll had issues because I believe that Marr was compromised and he was paid to do a poll that would influence UDP’s primary voters,” he said.
He dismissed the pollster’s denial, pointing to what he described as a deliberate narrative aimed at shaping the primary outcome.
“The point was not about Talib being second. It was about convincing people that because Talib and his group have this narrative of a winnable candidate, Hussein is not winnable, Talib is not winnable. So, what the poll was saying at the time was, UDP, your primary election, vote for Talib. I called him out. And then this comes again.”
Sabally claimed there is now undeniable proof that Marr was receiving money from a political party while acting as its mobiliser and campaign manager, a conflict he described as deplorable.
“There was evidence on the table that Marr actually is receiving money from a political party and was acting as a political party’s mobiliser and campaign manager. How can you be doing that and also doing polls? This is wrong,” he said.
“We have evidence on the table. Undeniable. Irrefutable. It’s deplorable. Let the politician be politicians. Let the pollsters be pollsters. Let the activists be activists. You cannot be an activist and a politician at the same time. You cannot be a pollster and a campaign manager for a political party. And that party being among the samples that you have. Come on, for Allah’s sake.”
Sabally also alleged that Talib and his Unite party gave money to Marr, “I believe that Talib and Unite also gave money to Marr. This is the fact. And he will continue to be exposed until this election. God is not sleeping.
Beyond the disputed polls, Sabally pointed to international forecasts confirming President Barrow’s re-election.
“Even The most reputable Economist magazine, its subsidiary, Economist Intelligence Unit, has done its forecast and has established that President Barrow is going to win,” he said. “We are the champions. Game over.”
He said any poll conducted today would still put Barrow ahead, even after the power crisis protests. “If a poll is done today, President Barrow will emerge again as a leader. And if you look at the sample of polls done, you average it at everything and factor in the discontent, you will still see President Barrow leading.”
Sabally claimed the 35% attributed to Barrow in one poll understates his actual support, and accused Marr of suppressing the president’s numbers while inflating the undecided vote to manipulate future polls.
“It’s understating the president’s support because he left; he was doing some numbers. Peter, I did numbers for all my life. When you look at those numbers and what he gave Talib and the undecided vote, you know that he’s keeping that undecided vote so that when he polls again in November, he can tell the public that Talib is going to win. We know this game,” he said.
He dismissed the 17% undecided figure as “too huge and not true,” arguing that The Gambia is politically polarised and voters have already taken their positions.
With the December 5 election approaching, Sabally said he is focused on securing Barrow’s re-election, refusing to be drawn into predicting exact margins.
“I’m not going to even get into numbers. Because what’s happening in this country with all the manipulation that’s going on, my focus is just to get the president re-elected. And we know we are in poll position. That’s going to happen. Even if it happens by one vote, we want continuity of peace, progress, development, stability, democracy, freedom of the press,” he said.
